August 2025
Released September 26, 2025
+2.74
percent
PCE price index
inflation
Aug 2024 to Aug
2025
+0.35
percent
Change in real
PCE
Jul 2025 to Aug
2025
+0.37
percent
Change in personal
income
Jul 2025 to Aug
2025
Expenditures and inflation
From July 2025 to August 2025:
- Headline PCE price index inflation was 0.26
percent.
- Core PCE price index inflation was 0.23 percent.
This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more
volatile.
- All services inflation was 0.32 percent.
- All goods inflation was 0.13 percent.
- Durable goods inflation was -0.07 percent.
- Nondurable goods inflation was 0.24 percent.
- Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by
0.35 percent, or $57.86 billion.
- Real PCE on all services increased by 0.21 percent,
or $22.75 billion.
- Real PCE on all goods increased by 0.66 percent, or
$37.57 billion.
- Real PCE on durable goods increased by 0.90
percent, or $19.27 billion.
- Real PCE on nondurable goods increased by 0.54
percent, or $18.95 billion.
- The nominal personal savings rate decreased by 0.2
percentage points to 4.6 percent.
From August 2024 to August 2025:
- Headline PCE price index inflation was 2.74
percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2
percent.
- Core PCE price index inflation was 2.91
percent.
From July 2025 to August 2025:
- Headline personal income increased by 0.37 percent,
or $95.71 billion.
- Real disposable personal income per capita increased by 0.05
percent, which means that after tax income rose more quickly
than prices.
Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators
|
|
Aug 2025
|
Jul 2025
|
Chg. from Jul 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
|
|
|
|
|
Real Disposable Personal Income
|
0.11%
|
0.23%
|
-0.12pp
|
|
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
|
0.35%
|
0.38%
|
-0.03pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month-over-month PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
0.26%
|
0.16%
|
0.10pp
|
|
Core
|
0.23%
|
0.24%
|
-0.01pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year-over-year PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
2.74%
|
2.60%
|
0.14pp
|
|
Core
|
2.91%
|
2.85%
|
0.06pp
|
Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast
|
|
Cleveland Fed forecast
|
Actual
|
Forecast error
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month-over-month PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
0.32%
|
0.26%
|
0.06pp
|
|
Core
|
0.28%
|
0.23%
|
0.05pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year-over-year PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
2.79%
|
2.74%
|
0.05pp
|
|
Core
|
2.99%
|
2.91%
|
0.08pp
|
Upcoming releases
|
Date
|
Time
|
Release
|
Data source
|
|
Oct 03
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Employment Update, September 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
|
Oct 07
|
10:00 AM
|
Monthly Debt Update, October 2025
|
U.S. Treasury
|
|
Oct 07
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Trade Update, August 2025
|
Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Oct 10
|
10:00 AM
|
Monthly Fiscal Update, September 2025
|
U.S. Treasury
|
|
Oct 15
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Inflation Update, September 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
|
Oct 21
|
10:00 AM
|
State Employment Update, September 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations
“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over
year
Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are
seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to
rounding.