+2.34
percent
PCE price index
inflation
May 2024 to May
2025
-0.28
percent
Change in personal
consumption expenditures
Apr
2025 to May 2025
-0.42
percent
Change in personal
income
Apr 2025 to May
2025
Expenditures and inflation
From April 2025 to May 2025:
- Headline PCE price index inflation was 0.14
percent.
- Core PCE price index inflation was 0.18 percent.
This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more
volatile.
- All services inflation was 0.17 percent.
- All goods inflation was 0.07 percent.
- Durable goods inflation was 0.01 percent.
- Nondurable goods inflation was 0.10 percent.
- Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased by
0.28 percent, or $45.4 billion.
- Real PCE on all services decreased by 0.03 percent,
or $2.8 billion.
- Real PCE on all goods decreased by 0.83 percent, or
$46.62 billion.
- Real PCE on durable goods decreased by 1.83
percent, or $39.41 billion.
- Real PCE on nondurable goods decreased by 0.28
percent, or $9.78 billion.
- The nominal personal savings rate decreased by 0.4
percentage points to 4.5 percent.
From May 2024 to May 2025:
- Headline PCE price index inflation was 2.34
percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2
percent.
- Core PCE price index inflation was 2.68
percent.
From April 2025 to May 2025:
- Headline personal income decreased by 0.42 percent,
or $109.59 billion.
- Real disposable personal income per capita decreased by 0.73
percent, which means that after tax income rose less quickly
than prices.
Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators
|
|
May 2025
|
Apr 2025
|
Chg. from Apr 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
|
|
|
|
|
Real Disposable Personal Income
|
-0.69%
|
0.65%
|
-1.34pp
|
|
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
|
-0.28%
|
0.09%
|
-0.37pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month-over-month PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
0.14%
|
0.12%
|
0.02pp
|
|
Core
|
0.18%
|
0.14%
|
0.04pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year-over-year PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
2.34%
|
2.20%
|
0.14pp
|
|
Core
|
2.68%
|
2.58%
|
0.10pp
|
Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast
|
|
Cleveland Fed forecast
|
Actual
|
Forecast error
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month-over-month PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
0.09%
|
0.14%
|
-0.05pp
|
|
Core
|
0.14%
|
0.18%
|
-0.04pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year-over-year PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
2.25%
|
2.34%
|
-0.09pp
|
|
Core
|
2.58%
|
2.68%
|
-0.10pp
|
Upcoming releases
|
Date
|
Time
|
Release
|
Data source
|
|
Jul 03
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Employment Update, June 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
|
Jul 03
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Trade Update, May 2025
|
Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Jul 08
|
10:00 AM
|
Monthly Debt Update, July 2025
|
U.S. Treasury
|
|
Jul 14
|
10:00 AM
|
Monthly Fiscal Update, June 2025
|
U.S. Treasury
|
|
Jul 15
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Inflation Update, June 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
|
Jul 18
|
10:00 AM
|
State Employment Update, June 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations
“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over
year
Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are
seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to
rounding.