| Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | Chg. from Nov 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income and outlays growth (m/m) | |||
| Real Disposable Personal Income | -0.03% | 0.12% | -0.15pp |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.07% | 0.17% | -0.10pp |
| Month-over-month PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 0.36% | 0.21% | +0.15pp |
| Core | 0.36% | 0.17% | +0.19pp |
| Year-over-year PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 2.90% | 2.82% | +0.08pp |
| Core | 3.00% | 2.83% | +0.17pp |
| Cleveland Fed forecast | Actual | Forecast error | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month-over-month PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 0.26% | 0.36% | -0.10pp |
| Core | 0.23% | 0.36% | -0.13pp |
| Year-over-year PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 2.76% | 2.90% | -0.14pp |
| Core | 2.84% | 3.00% | -0.16pp |
| Expenditure category | Dec 2025 | Nov 2025 | Chg. from Nov 2025 | Dec 2024 | Chg. from Dec 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing and utilities |
$3,883.1B (18.08%) |
$3,853.7B (18.02%) |
+0.76% (+0.06pp) |
$3,704.4B (18.06%) |
+4.82% (+0.02pp) |
| Health care |
$3,694.9B (17.21%) |
$3,674.5B (17.18%) |
+0.56% (+0.02pp) |
$3,421.5B (16.68%) |
+7.99% (+0.53pp) |
| Financial services and insurance |
$1,769.8B (8.24%) |
$1,755.2B (8.21%) |
+0.83% (+0.03pp) |
$1,618.2B (7.89%) |
+9.37% (+0.35pp) |
| Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption |
$1,542.2B (7.18%) |
$1,541.3B (7.21%) |
+0.06% (-0.03pp) |
$1,511.7B (7.37%) |
+2.02% (-0.19pp) |
| Food services and accommodations |
$1,521.6B (7.09%) |
$1,519.4B (7.11%) |
+0.15% (-0.02pp) |
$1,455.3B (7.09%) |
+4.55% (-0.01pp) |
| Pharmaceutical and other medical products |
$746.7B (3.48%) |
$747.9B (3.50%) |
-0.17% (-0.02pp) |
$699.5B (3.41%) |
+6.74% (+0.07pp) |
| Motor vehicles and parts |
$744.7B (3.47%) |
$751.0B (3.51%) |
-0.84% (-0.04pp) |
$803.2B (3.92%) |
-7.29% (-0.45pp) |
| Transportation services |
$717.9B (3.34%) |
$717.3B (3.35%) |
+0.08% (-0.01pp) |
$697.9B (3.40%) |
+2.87% (-0.06pp) |
| Recreational goods and vehicles |
$713.1B (3.32%) |
$713.5B (3.34%) |
-0.06% (-0.02pp) |
$685.3B (3.34%) |
+4.06% (-0.02pp) |
| Clothing and footwear |
$573.4B (2.67%) |
$575.7B (2.69%) |
-0.41% (-0.02pp) |
$546.0B (2.66%) |
+5.01% (+0.01pp) |
| Furnishings and durable household equipment |
$510.9B (2.38%) |
$511.1B (2.39%) |
-0.04% (-0.01pp) |
$506.4B (2.47%) |
+0.89% (-0.09pp) |
| Gasoline and other energy goods |
$432.2B (2.01%) |
$427.5B (2.00%) |
+1.10% (+0.01pp) |
$443.2B (2.16%) |
-2.47% (-0.15pp) |
| Education services |
$366.5B (1.71%) |
$365.5B (1.71%) |
+0.26% (-0.00pp) |
$356.8B (1.74%) |
+2.70% (-0.03pp) |
| Communication |
$327.5B (1.53%) |
$326.2B (1.53%) |
+0.39% (-0.00pp) |
$313.9B (1.53%) |
+4.33% (-0.01pp) |
| All other expenditures |
$3,930.5B (18.30%) |
$3,904.1B (18.26%) |
+0.68% (+0.05pp) |
$3,750.9B (18.28%) |
+4.79% (+0.02pp) |
Note: Each month column shows the nominal dollar amount at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for each expenditure category and its share of total expenditure in parentheses. In the gray “change” columns, the percent value indicates the change in the annualized dollar amount over the period, and the percentage-point value in parentheses indicates the change in that category’s share of total expenditure over the period.
| Date | Time | Release | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 26 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Expenditures Update, January 2026 | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Feb 26 | 08:30 AM | Monthly GDP Update, Q4 2025 Second Estimate | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Mar 05 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Trade Update, January 2026 | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Mar 06 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Employment Update, February 2026 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Mar 06 | 10:00 AM | Monthly Debt Update, March 2026 | U.S. Treasury |
| Mar 11 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Inflation Update, February 2026 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations
“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year
Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.