July 2026

Released August 26, 2026


+3.70 percent
PCE price index inflation
Jul 2025 to Jul 2026
+0.01 percent
Change in real PCE
Jun 2026 to Jul 2026
+0.43 percent
Change in personal income
Jun 2026 to Jul 2026

Expenditures and inflation


From June 2026 to July 2026:

  • Headline PCE price index inflation was 0.16 percent.
  • Core PCE price index inflation was 0.25 percent. This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile.
  • All services inflation was 0.27 percent.
  • All goods inflation was -0.11 percent.
    • Durable goods inflation was 0.37 percent.
    • Nondurable goods inflation was -0.37 percent.


  • Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.01 percent, or $1.26 billion.
  • Real PCE on all services increased by 0.29 percent, or $32.04 billion.
  • Real PCE on all goods decreased by 0.61 percent, or $35.48 billion.
    • Real PCE on durable goods decreased by 1.39 percent, or $30.48 billion.
    • Real PCE on nondurable goods decreased by 0.20 percent, or $7.13 billion.


  • The nominal personal savings rate increased by 0.4 percentage points to 3 percent.


From July 2025 to July 2026:

  • Headline PCE price index inflation was 3.70 percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
  • Core PCE price index inflation was 3.34 percent.



Income and savings


From June 2026 to July 2026:



Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators

Jul 2026 Jun 2026 Chg. from Jun 2026
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
Real Disposable Personal Income 0.37% 0.30% +0.07pp
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.01% 0.44% -0.43pp
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline 0.16% -0.09% +0.25pp
Core 0.25% 0.15% +0.10pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline 3.70% 3.72% -0.02pp
Core 3.34% 3.34% +0.00pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline 0.15% 0.16% -0.01pp
Core 0.25% 0.25% -0.00pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline 3.65% 3.70% -0.05pp
Core 3.29% 3.34% -0.05pp


Table 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures by category

Expenditure category Jul 2026 Jun 2026 Chg. from Jun 2026 Jul 2025 Chg. from Jul 2025
Housing and utilities $3,979.8B
(17.89%)
$3,963.4B
(17.84%)
+0.41%
(+0.04pp)
$3,809.5B
(18.13%)
+4.47%
(-0.25pp)
Health care $3,830.8B
(17.22%)
$3,807.7B
(17.14%)
+0.61%
(+0.08pp)
$3,567.2B
(16.98%)
+7.39%
(+0.24pp)
Financial services and insurance $1,880.2B
(8.45%)
$1,855.9B
(8.35%)
+1.31%
(+0.10pp)
$1,699.4B
(8.09%)
+10.64%
(+0.36pp)
Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption $1,570.7B
(7.06%)
$1,573.1B
(7.08%)
-0.15%
(-0.02pp)
$1,533.8B
(7.30%)
+2.41%
(-0.24pp)
Food services and accommodations $1,567.5B
(7.04%)
$1,562.9B
(7.04%)
+0.30%
(+0.01pp)
$1,501.1B
(7.15%)
+4.43%
(-0.10pp)
Transportation services $774.8B
(3.48%)
$770.0B
(3.47%)
+0.63%
(+0.02pp)
$700.6B
(3.34%)
+10.59%
(+0.15pp)
Motor vehicles and parts $770.3B
(3.46%)
$779.6B
(3.51%)
-1.20%
(-0.05pp)
$764.3B
(3.64%)
+0.78%
(-0.18pp)
Recreational goods and vehicles $754.0B
(3.39%)
$767.6B
(3.46%)
-1.77%
(-0.07pp)
$702.0B
(3.34%)
+7.40%
(+0.05pp)
Pharmaceutical and other medical products $752.3B
(3.38%)
$750.3B
(3.38%)
+0.26%
(+0.00pp)
$738.5B
(3.52%)
+1.86%
(-0.13pp)
Clothing and footwear $599.6B
(2.69%)
$601.8B
(2.71%)
-0.36%
(-0.01pp)
$565.8B
(2.69%)
+5.98%
(+0.00pp)
Furnishings and durable household equipment $533.7B
(2.40%)
$537.5B
(2.42%)
-0.71%
(-0.02pp)
$509.5B
(2.43%)
+4.75%
(-0.03pp)
Gasoline and other energy goods $490.4B
(2.20%)
$504.4B
(2.27%)
-2.77%
(-0.07pp)
$401.7B
(1.91%)
+22.08%
(+0.29pp)
Education services $372.7B
(1.68%)
$371.5B
(1.67%)
+0.33%
(+0.00pp)
$364.8B
(1.74%)
+2.19%
(-0.06pp)
Communication $325.4B
(1.46%)
$322.8B
(1.45%)
+0.81%
(+0.01pp)
$320.2B
(1.52%)
+1.64%
(-0.06pp)
All other expenditures $4,048.1B
(18.19%)
$4,045.6B
(18.21%)
+0.06%
(-0.02pp)
$3,829.0B
(18.23%)
+5.72%
(-0.03pp)

Note: Each month column shows the nominal dollar amount at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for each expenditure category and its share of total expenditure in parentheses. In the gray “change” columns, the percent value indicates the change in the annualized dollar amount over the period, and the percentage-point value in parentheses indicates the change in that category’s share of total expenditure over the period.


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Sep 03 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, July 2026 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Sep 04 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, August 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sep 08 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, September 2026 U.S. Treasury
Sep 11 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, August 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Sep 14 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, August 2026 U.S. Treasury
Sep 18 10:00 AM State Employment and Unemployment, August 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics


Notes


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.