March 2026

Released April 30, 2026

+3.50 percent
PCE price index inflation
Mar 2025 to Mar 2026

+0.24 percent
Change in real PCE
Feb 2026 to Mar 2026

+0.56 percent
Change in personal income
Feb 2026 to Mar 2026

Expenditures and inflation

From February 2026 to March 2026:

• Headline PCE price index inflation was 0.66 percent.
• Core PCE price index inflation was 0.29 percent. This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile.
• All services inflation was 0.32 percent.
• All goods inflation was 1.43 percent.
  • Durable goods inflation was 0.42 percent.
  • Nondurable goods inflation was 1.98 percent.

• Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.24 percent, or $39.57 billion.
• Real PCE on all services increased by 0.10 percent, or $10.63 billion.
• Real PCE on all goods increased by 0.55 percent, or $31.34 billion.
  • Real PCE on durable goods increased by 0.94 percent, or $20.12 billion.
  • Real PCE on nondurable goods increased by 0.35 percent, or $12.28 billion.

• The nominal personal savings rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 3.6 percent.

From March 2025 to March 2026:

• Headline PCE price index inflation was 3.50 percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
• Core PCE price index inflation was 3.20 percent.

Income and savings

From February 2026 to March 2026:

• Headline personal income increased by 0.56 percent, or $149.22 billion.
• Real disposable personal income per capita decreased by 0.07 percent, which means that after tax income rose less quickly than prices.

Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators

	Mar 2026	Feb 2026	Chg. from Feb 2026
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
Real Disposable Personal Income	-0.06%	-0.37%	+0.31pp
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures	0.24%	0.27%	-0.03pp
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline	0.66%	0.38%	+0.28pp
Core	0.29%	0.37%	-0.08pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline	3.50%	2.83%	+0.67pp
Core	3.20%	3.00%	+0.20pp

Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

	Cleveland Fed forecast	Actual	Forecast error
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline	0.58%	0.66%	-0.08pp
Core	0.23%	0.29%	-0.06pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline	3.39%	3.50%	-0.11pp
Core	3.10%	3.20%	-0.10pp

Table 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures by category

Expenditure category	Mar 2026	Feb 2026	Chg. from Feb 2026	Mar 2025	Chg. from Mar 2025
Housing and utilities	$3,904.5B (17.86%)	$3,904.0B (18.02%)	+0.01% (-0.16pp)	$3,745.9B (18.11%)	+4.23% (-0.25pp)
Health care	$3,741.3B (17.11%)	$3,720.0B (17.17%)	+0.57% (-0.06pp)	$3,463.6B (16.75%)	+8.02% (+0.37pp)
Financial services and insurance	$1,822.6B (8.34%)	$1,808.0B (8.35%)	+0.80% (-0.01pp)	$1,649.9B (7.98%)	+10.46% (+0.36pp)
Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption	$1,547.8B (7.08%)	$1,540.9B (7.11%)	+0.45% (-0.03pp)	$1,520.8B (7.35%)	+1.78% (-0.27pp)
Food services and accommodations	$1,526.4B (6.98%)	$1,522.9B (7.03%)	+0.23% (-0.05pp)	$1,476.1B (7.14%)	+3.40% (-0.15pp)
Motor vehicles and parts	$780.9B (3.57%)	$763.3B (3.52%)	+2.30% (+0.05pp)	$808.4B (3.91%)	-3.40% (-0.34pp)
Transportation services	$751.3B (3.44%)	$744.5B (3.44%)	+0.91% (+0.00pp)	$685.9B (3.32%)	+9.53% (+0.12pp)
Pharmaceutical and other medical products	$740.5B (3.39%)	$737.0B (3.40%)	+0.47% (-0.01pp)	$719.1B (3.48%)	+2.97% (-0.09pp)
Recreational goods and vehicles	$737.8B (3.38%)	$731.5B (3.38%)	+0.87% (-0.00pp)	$688.0B (3.33%)	+7.24% (+0.05pp)
Clothing and footwear	$589.6B (2.70%)	$586.7B (2.71%)	+0.49% (-0.01pp)	$552.4B (2.67%)	+6.74% (+0.03pp)
Furnishings and durable household equipment	$525.1B (2.40%)	$520.1B (2.40%)	+0.95% (+0.00pp)	$507.3B (2.45%)	+3.50% (-0.05pp)
Gasoline and other energy goods	$503.7B (2.30%)	$422.4B (1.95%)	+19.23% (+0.35pp)	$416.4B (2.01%)	+20.97% (+0.29pp)
Education services	$370.3B (1.69%)	$368.8B (1.70%)	+0.41% (-0.01pp)	$360.2B (1.74%)	+2.81% (-0.05pp)
Communication	$324.0B (1.48%)	$322.5B (1.49%)	+0.47% (-0.01pp)	$316.5B (1.53%)	+2.35% (-0.05pp)
All other expenditures	$3,994.8B (18.27%)	$3,972.4B (18.34%)	+0.56% (-0.06pp)	$3,772.3B (18.24%)	+5.90% (+0.04pp)

Note: Each month column shows the nominal dollar amount at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for each expenditure category and its share of total expenditure in parentheses. In the gray “change” columns, the percent value indicates the change in the annualized dollar amount over the period, and the percentage-point value in parentheses indicates the change in that category’s share of total expenditure over the period.

Upcoming releases

Date	Time	Release	Data source
May 05	08:30 AM	Monthly Trade Update, March 2026	Bureau of Economic Analysis
May 06	10:00 AM	State Employment and Unemployment, March 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 07	10:00 AM	Monthly Debt Update, May 2026	U.S. Treasury
May 08	08:30 AM	Monthly Employment Update, April 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 12	08:30 AM	Monthly Inflation Update, April 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 12	10:00 AM	Monthly Fiscal Update, February 2026	U.S. Treasury
May 13	10:00 AM	Monthly Fiscal Update, April 2026	U.S. Treasury
May 22	10:00 AM	State Employment and Unemployment, April 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 28	08:30 AM	Monthly Expenditures Update, April 2026	Bureau of Economic Analysis
May 28	08:30 AM	Monthly GDP Update, Q1 2026 Second Estimate	Bureau of Economic Analysis

Notes

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.