+2.58
percent
PCE price index
inflation
Jun 2024 to Jun
2025
+0.06
percent
Change in real
PCE
May 2025 to Jun
2025
+0.28
percent
Change in personal
income
May 2025 to Jun
2025
Expenditures and inflation
From May 2025 to June 2025:
- Headline PCE price index inflation was 0.28
percent.
- Core PCE price index inflation was 0.26 percent.
This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more
volatile.
- All services inflation was 0.23 percent.
- All goods inflation was 0.39 percent.
- Durable goods inflation was 0.47 percent.
- Nondurable goods inflation was 0.35 percent.
- Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by
0.06 percent, or $9.53 billion.
- Real PCE on all services increased by 0.05 percent,
or $5.54 billion.
- Real PCE on all goods increased by 0.07 percent, or
$4.15 billion.
- Real PCE on durable goods decreased by 0.49
percent, or $10.29 billion.
- Real PCE on nondurable goods increased by 0.38
percent, or $13.05 billion.
- The nominal personal savings rate remained unchanged with a
net change of 0 percentage points to 4.5
percent.
From June 2024 to June 2025:
- Headline PCE price index inflation was 2.58
percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2
percent.
- Core PCE price index inflation was 2.79
percent.
From May 2025 to June 2025:
- Headline personal income increased by 0.28 percent,
or $71.45 billion.
- Real disposable personal income per capita decreased by 0.06
percent, which means that after tax income rose less quickly
than prices.
Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators
|
|
Jun 2025
|
May 2025
|
Chg. from May 2025
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
|
|
|
|
|
Real Disposable Personal Income
|
-0.01%
|
-0.69%
|
0.68pp
|
|
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
|
0.06%
|
-0.20%
|
0.26pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month-over-month PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
0.28%
|
0.17%
|
0.11pp
|
|
Core
|
0.26%
|
0.21%
|
0.05pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year-over-year PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
2.58%
|
2.42%
|
0.16pp
|
|
Core
|
2.79%
|
2.76%
|
0.03pp
|
Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast
|
|
Cleveland Fed forecast
|
Actual
|
Forecast error
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Month-over-month PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
0.24%
|
0.28%
|
-0.04pp
|
|
Core
|
0.21%
|
0.26%
|
-0.05pp
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year-over-year PCE inflation
|
|
|
|
|
Headline
|
2.47%
|
2.58%
|
-0.11pp
|
|
Core
|
2.66%
|
2.79%
|
-0.13pp
|
Upcoming releases
|
Date
|
Time
|
Release
|
Data source
|
|
Aug 01
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Employment Update, July 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
|
Aug 05
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Trade Update, June 2025
|
Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Aug 07
|
10:00 AM
|
Monthly Debt Update, August 2025
|
U.S. Treasury
|
|
Aug 12
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Inflation Update, July 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
|
Aug 13
|
10:00 AM
|
Monthly Fiscal Update, July 2025
|
U.S. Treasury
|
|
Aug 19
|
10:00 AM
|
State Employment Update, July 2025
|
Bureau of Labor Statistics
|
|
Aug 28
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly GDP Update, Q2 2025 Second Estimate
|
Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
|
Aug 29
|
08:30 AM
|
Monthly Expenditures Update, July 2025
|
Bureau of Economic Analysis
|
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations
“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over
year
Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are
seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to
rounding.