| Sep 2025 | Aug 2025 | Chg. from Aug 2025 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Income and outlays growth (m/m) | |||
| Real Disposable Personal Income | 0.06% | 0.11% | -0.05pp |
| Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | 0.04% | 0.25% | -0.21pp |
| Month-over-month PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 0.27% | 0.26% | +0.01pp |
| Core | 0.20% | 0.22% | -0.02pp |
| Year-over-year PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 2.79% | 2.74% | +0.05pp |
| Core | 2.83% | 2.90% | -0.07pp |
| Cleveland Fed forecast | Actual | Forecast error | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Month-over-month PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 0.27% | 0.27% | +0.00pp |
| Core | 0.22% | 0.20% | +0.02pp |
| Year-over-year PCE inflation | |||
| Headline | 2.79% | 2.79% | +0.00pp |
| Core | 2.85% | 2.83% | +0.02pp |
| Expenditure category | Sep 2025 | Aug 2025 | Chg. from Aug 2025 | Sep 2024 | Chg. from Sep 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Housing and utilities |
$3,831.1B (18.11%) |
$3,815.7B (18.09%) |
+0.40% (+0.02pp) |
$3,648.5B (18.11%) |
+5.00% (+0.00pp) |
| Health care |
$3,571.0B (16.88%) |
$3,558.4B (16.87%) |
+0.35% (+0.01pp) |
$3,373.3B (16.74%) |
+5.86% (+0.14pp) |
| Financial services and insurance |
$1,737.8B (8.22%) |
$1,725.3B (8.18%) |
+0.73% (+0.03pp) |
$1,587.2B (7.88%) |
+9.49% (+0.34pp) |
| Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption |
$1,541.7B (7.29%) |
$1,541.7B (7.31%) |
0.00% (-0.02pp) |
$1,494.7B (7.42%) |
+3.14% (-0.13pp) |
| Food services and accommodations |
$1,527.4B (7.22%) |
$1,519.2B (7.20%) |
+0.54% (+0.02pp) |
$1,440.9B (7.15%) |
+6.01% (+0.07pp) |
| Motor vehicles and parts |
$749.6B (3.54%) |
$757.0B (3.59%) |
-0.98% (-0.05pp) |
$736.3B (3.65%) |
+1.80% (-0.11pp) |
| Pharmaceutical and other medical products |
$746.1B (3.53%) |
$740.7B (3.51%) |
+0.72% (+0.01pp) |
$703.5B (3.49%) |
+6.06% (+0.04pp) |
| Transportation services |
$717.6B (3.39%) |
$710.9B (3.37%) |
+0.94% (+0.02pp) |
$662.8B (3.29%) |
+8.27% (+0.10pp) |
| Recreational goods and vehicles |
$701.5B (3.32%) |
$707.8B (3.36%) |
-0.89% (-0.04pp) |
$669.7B (3.32%) |
+4.74% (-0.01pp) |
| Clothing and footwear |
$567.5B (2.68%) |
$571.4B (2.71%) |
-0.67% (-0.03pp) |
$533.6B (2.65%) |
+6.35% (+0.03pp) |
| Furnishings and durable household equipment |
$510.0B (2.41%) |
$509.4B (2.42%) |
+0.12% (-0.00pp) |
$497.9B (2.47%) |
+2.44% (-0.06pp) |
| Gasoline and other energy goods |
$427.7B (2.02%) |
$410.5B (1.95%) |
+4.18% (+0.08pp) |
$430.8B (2.14%) |
-0.73% (-0.12pp) |
| Education services |
$365.7B (1.73%) |
$365.8B (1.73%) |
-0.03% (-0.01pp) |
$355.1B (1.76%) |
+2.99% (-0.03pp) |
| Communication |
$326.5B (1.54%) |
$325.8B (1.54%) |
+0.21% (-0.00pp) |
$311.8B (1.55%) |
+4.70% (-0.00pp) |
| All other expenditures |
$3,831.0B (18.11%) |
$3,827.4B (18.15%) |
+0.09% (-0.04pp) |
$3,701.5B (18.37%) |
+3.50% (-0.26pp) |
Note: Each month column shows the nominal dollar amount at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for each expenditure category and its share of total expenditure in parentheses. In the gray “change” columns, the percent value indicates the change in the annualized dollar amount over the period, and the percentage-point value in parentheses indicates the change in that category’s share of total expenditure over the period.
| Date | Time | Release | Data source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 11 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Trade Update, September 2025 | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
| Dec 11 | 08:30 AM | State Employment Update, September 2025 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Dec 11 | 10:00 AM | Monthly Fiscal Update, November 2025 | U.S. Treasury |
| Dec 16 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Employment Update, November 2025 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Dec 18 | 08:30 AM | Monthly Inflation Update, November 2025 | Bureau of Labor Statistics |
| Dec 23 | 08:30 AM | Monthly GDP Update, Q3 2025 Initial Estimate | Bureau of Economic Analysis |
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations
“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year
Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.