March 2025

Released April 30, 2025


Expenditures and inflation


From February 2025 to March 2025:

  • Headline PCE price index inflation was -0.04 percent.
  • Core PCE price index inflation was 0.03 percent. This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile.
  • All services inflation was 0.15 percent.
  • All goods inflation was -0.48 percent.
    • Durable goods inflation was -0.05 percent.
    • Nondurable goods inflation was -0.71 percent.


  • Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.70 percent, or $114.1 billion.
  • Real PCE on all services increased by 0.41 percent, or $44.28 billion.
  • Real PCE on all goods increased by 1.34 percent, or $74.34 billion.
    • Real PCE on durable goods increased by 3.21 percent, or $66.98 billion.
    • Real PCE on nondurable goods increased by 0.35 percent, or $12.29 billion.


  • The nominal personal savings rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.9 percent.


From March 2024 to March 2025:

  • Headline PCE price index inflation was 2.29 percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
  • Core PCE price index inflation was 2.65 percent.



Income and savings


From February 2025 to March 2025:



Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators

Mar 2025 Feb 2025 Chg. from Feb 2025
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
Real Disposable Personal Income 0.50% 0.35% 0.15pp
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.70% 0.10% 0.60pp
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline -0.04% 0.44% -0.48pp
Core 0.03% 0.50% -0.47pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline 2.29% 2.69% -0.40pp
Core 2.65% 2.96% -0.31pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline 0.00% -0.04% 0.04pp
Core 0.10% 0.03% 0.07pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline 2.19% 2.29% -0.10pp
Core 2.54% 2.65% -0.11pp


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
May 02 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, April 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 06 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, March 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
May 07 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, May 2025 U.S. Treasury
May 13 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, April 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 13 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, April 2025 U.S. Treasury
May 21 10:00 AM State Employment Update, April 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 29 08:30 AM Monthly GDP Update, Q1 2025 Second Estimate Bureau of Economic Analysis
May 30 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, April 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis


Notes


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.