February 2026

Released April 09, 2026

+2.80 percent
PCE price index inflation
Feb 2025 to Feb 2026

+0.10 percent
Change in real PCE
Jan 2026 to Feb 2026

-0.07 percent
Change in personal income
Jan 2026 to Feb 2026

Expenditures and inflation

From January 2026 to February 2026:

• Headline PCE price index inflation was 0.38 percent.
• Core PCE price index inflation was 0.37 percent. This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile.
• All services inflation was 0.22 percent.
• All goods inflation was 0.74 percent.
  • Durable goods inflation was 1.05 percent.
  • Nondurable goods inflation was 0.58 percent.

• Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.10 percent, or $17.28 billion.
• Real PCE on all services increased by 0.08 percent, or $9.09 billion.
• Real PCE on all goods increased by 0.15 percent, or $8.59 billion.
  • Real PCE on durable goods increased by 0.89 percent, or $18.67 billion.
  • Real PCE on nondurable goods decreased by 0.24 percent, or $8.32 billion.

• The nominal personal savings rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 4 percent.

From February 2025 to February 2026:

• Headline PCE price index inflation was 2.80 percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
• Core PCE price index inflation was 2.97 percent.

Income and savings

From January 2026 to February 2026:

• Headline personal income decreased by 0.07 percent, or $18.16 billion.
• Real disposable personal income per capita decreased by 0.46 percent, which means that after tax income rose less quickly than prices.

Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators

	Feb 2026	Jan 2026	Chg. from Jan 2026
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
Real Disposable Personal Income	-0.45%	0.62%	-1.07pp
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures	0.10%	0.01%	+0.09pp
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline	0.38%	0.30%	+0.08pp
Core	0.37%	0.39%	-0.02pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline	2.80%	2.83%	-0.03pp
Core	2.97%	3.05%	-0.08pp

Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

	Cleveland Fed forecast	Actual	Forecast error
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline	0.25%	0.38%	-0.13pp
Core	0.23%	0.37%	-0.14pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline	2.67%	2.80%	-0.13pp
Core	2.83%	2.97%	-0.14pp

Table 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures by category

Expenditure category	Feb 2026	Jan 2026	Chg. from Jan 2026	Feb 2025	Chg. from Feb 2025
Housing and utilities	$3,906.3B (18.07%)	$3,900.7B (18.13%)	+0.14% (-0.06pp)	$3,738.6B (18.22%)	+4.49% (-0.15pp)
Health care	$3,718.3B (17.20%)	$3,702.6B (17.21%)	+0.43% (-0.01pp)	$3,449.1B (16.81%)	+7.80% (+0.39pp)
Financial services and insurance	$1,805.0B (8.35%)	$1,794.6B (8.34%)	+0.58% (+0.01pp)	$1,644.6B (8.01%)	+9.75% (+0.34pp)
Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption	$1,541.3B (7.13%)	$1,549.1B (7.20%)	-0.50% (-0.07pp)	$1,518.8B (7.40%)	+1.48% (-0.27pp)
Food services and accommodations	$1,523.2B (7.05%)	$1,516.1B (7.05%)	+0.47% (-0.00pp)	$1,454.1B (7.09%)	+4.75% (-0.04pp)
Motor vehicles and parts	$747.5B (3.46%)	$715.0B (3.32%)	+4.56% (+0.13pp)	$729.9B (3.56%)	+2.42% (-0.10pp)
Pharmaceutical and other medical products	$737.5B (3.41%)	$732.4B (3.40%)	+0.69% (+0.01pp)	$714.1B (3.48%)	+3.28% (-0.07pp)
Transportation services	$732.4B (3.39%)	$722.6B (3.36%)	+1.35% (+0.03pp)	$678.5B (3.31%)	+7.94% (+0.08pp)
Recreational goods and vehicles	$730.1B (3.38%)	$723.6B (3.36%)	+0.90% (+0.01pp)	$681.5B (3.32%)	+7.13% (+0.06pp)
Clothing and footwear	$580.5B (2.69%)	$571.8B (2.66%)	+1.52% (+0.03pp)	$546.1B (2.66%)	+6.31% (+0.02pp)
Furnishings and durable household equipment	$515.8B (2.39%)	$514.8B (2.39%)	+0.18% (-0.01pp)	$502.8B (2.45%)	+2.57% (-0.06pp)
Gasoline and other energy goods	$419.6B (1.94%)	$415.0B (1.93%)	+1.11% (+0.01pp)	$447.5B (2.18%)	-6.24% (-0.24pp)
Education services	$368.8B (1.71%)	$368.3B (1.71%)	+0.16% (-0.01pp)	$358.8B (1.75%)	+2.80% (-0.04pp)
Communication	$323.7B (1.50%)	$323.4B (1.50%)	+0.12% (-0.01pp)	$315.6B (1.54%)	+2.57% (-0.04pp)
All other expenditures	$3,965.0B (18.34%)	$3,962.0B (18.42%)	+0.08% (-0.07pp)	$3,739.7B (18.22%)	+6.02% (+0.12pp)

Note: Each month column shows the nominal dollar amount at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for each expenditure category and its share of total expenditure in parentheses. In the gray “change” columns, the percent value indicates the change in the annualized dollar amount over the period, and the percentage-point value in parentheses indicates the change in that category’s share of total expenditure over the period.

Upcoming releases

Date	Time	Release	Data source
Apr 10	08:30 AM	Monthly Inflation Update, March 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 13	10:00 AM	Monthly Fiscal Update, March 2026	U.S. Treasury
Apr 22	10:00 AM	State Employment and Unemployment, February 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
Apr 30	08:30 AM	Monthly Expenditures Update, March 2026	Bureau of Economic Analysis
Apr 30	08:30 AM	Monthly GDP Update, Q1 2026 Advance Estimate	Bureau of Economic Analysis
May 05	08:30 AM	Monthly Trade Update, March 2026	Bureau of Economic Analysis
May 06	10:00 AM	State Employment and Unemployment, March 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics
May 07	10:00 AM	Monthly Debt Update, May 2026	U.S. Treasury
May 08	08:30 AM	Monthly Employment Update, April 2026	Bureau of Labor Statistics

Notes

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.