November 2025

Released January 22, 2026


+2.77 percent
PCE price index inflation
Nov 2024 to Nov 2025
+0.30 percent
Change in real PCE
Oct 2025 to Nov 2025
+0.30 percent
Change in personal income
Oct 2025 to Nov 2025

Expenditures and inflation


From October 2025 to November 2025:

  • Headline PCE price index inflation was 0.21 percent.
  • Core PCE price index inflation was 0.16 percent. This excludes food and energy prices, which tend to be more volatile.
  • All services inflation was 0.23 percent.
  • All goods inflation was 0.16 percent.
    • Durable goods inflation was 0.11 percent.
    • Nondurable goods inflation was 0.18 percent.


  • Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased by 0.30 percent, or $50.36 billion.
  • Real PCE on all services increased by 0.19 percent, or $20.87 billion.
  • Real PCE on all goods increased by 0.55 percent, or $31.51 billion.
    • Real PCE on durable goods increased by 0.63 percent, or $13.54 billion.
    • Real PCE on nondurable goods increased by 0.51 percent, or $18.22 billion.


  • The nominal personal savings rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 3.5 percent.


From November 2024 to November 2025:

  • Headline PCE price index inflation was 2.77 percent, which is higher than the Federal Reserve’s target of 2 percent.
  • Core PCE price index inflation was 2.79 percent.



Income and savings


From October 2025 to November 2025:



Table 1. Income and Consumption Indicators

Nov 2025 Oct 2025 Chg. from Oct 2025
Income and outlays growth (m/m)
Real Disposable Personal Income 0.07% -0.11% +0.18pp
Real Personal Consumption Expenditures 0.30% 0.31% -0.01pp
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline 0.21% 0.16% +0.05pp
Core 0.16% 0.21% -0.05pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline 2.77% 2.68% +0.09pp
Core 2.79% 2.73% +0.06pp


Table 2. Cleveland Federal Reserve Forecast

Cleveland Fed forecast Actual Forecast error
Month-over-month PCE inflation
Headline 0.07% 0.21% -0.14pp
Core 0.05% 0.16% -0.11pp
Year-over-year PCE inflation
Headline 2.65% 2.77% -0.12pp
Core 2.70% 2.79% -0.09pp


Table 3. Personal Consumption Expenditures by category

Expenditure category Nov 2025 Oct 2025 Chg. from Oct 2025 Nov 2024 Chg. from Nov 2024
Housing and utilities $3,850.7B
(17.99%) 		$3,842.4B
(18.04%) 		+0.21%
(-0.05pp) 		$3,666.5B
(18.05%) 		+5.02%
(-0.06pp)
Health care $3,669.2B
(17.14%) 		$3,643.7B
(17.11%) 		+0.70%
(+0.03pp) 		$3,401.5B
(16.74%) 		+7.87%
(+0.39pp)
Financial services and insurance $1,755.4B
(8.20%) 		$1,745.9B
(8.20%) 		+0.54%
(+0.00pp) 		$1,612.1B
(7.94%) 		+8.89%
(+0.26pp)
Food and beverages purchased for off-premises consumption $1,546.5B
(7.22%) 		$1,545.0B
(7.25%) 		+0.10%
(-0.03pp) 		$1,497.8B
(7.37%) 		+3.26%
(-0.15pp)
Food services and accommodations $1,517.8B
(7.09%) 		$1,510.7B
(7.09%) 		+0.47%
(-0.00pp) 		$1,457.3B
(7.17%) 		+4.16%
(-0.08pp)
Motor vehicles and parts $762.7B
(3.56%) 		$749.9B
(3.52%) 		+1.70%
(+0.04pp) 		$769.8B
(3.79%) 		-0.92%
(-0.23pp)
Pharmaceutical and other medical products $748.1B
(3.49%) 		$745.9B
(3.50%) 		+0.29%
(-0.01pp) 		$696.3B
(3.43%) 		+7.45%
(+0.07pp)
Transportation services $722.8B
(3.38%) 		$724.0B
(3.40%) 		-0.16%
(-0.02pp) 		$670.2B
(3.30%) 		+7.84%
(+0.08pp)
Recreational goods and vehicles $713.9B
(3.33%) 		$710.6B
(3.34%) 		+0.46%
(-0.00pp) 		$679.7B
(3.35%) 		+5.02%
(-0.01pp)
Clothing and footwear $578.8B
(2.70%) 		$574.7B
(2.70%) 		+0.72%
(+0.01pp) 		$540.6B
(2.66%) 		+7.07%
(+0.04pp)
Furnishings and durable household equipment $512.2B
(2.39%) 		$510.5B
(2.40%) 		+0.33%
(-0.00pp) 		$501.2B
(2.47%) 		+2.20%
(-0.07pp)
Gasoline and other energy goods $435.4B
(2.03%) 		$416.0B
(1.95%) 		+4.66%
(+0.08pp) 		$416.2B
(2.05%) 		+4.63%
(-0.01pp)
Education services $365.4B
(1.71%) 		$365.1B
(1.71%) 		+0.08%
(-0.01pp) 		$356.0B
(1.75%) 		+2.63%
(-0.05pp)
Communication $322.1B
(1.50%) 		$320.4B
(1.50%) 		+0.51%
(+0.00pp) 		$312.7B
(1.54%) 		+3.01%
(-0.03pp)
All other expenditures $3,908.6B
(18.26%) 		$3,896.0B
(18.29%) 		+0.32%
(-0.03pp) 		$3,735.8B
(18.39%) 		+4.63%
(-0.13pp)

Note: Each month column shows the nominal dollar amount at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) for each expenditure category and its share of total expenditure in parentheses. In the gray “change” columns, the percent value indicates the change in the annualized dollar amount over the period, and the percentage-point value in parentheses indicates the change in that category’s share of total expenditure over the period.


Upcoming releases


Date Time Release Data source
Jan 27 10:00 AM State Employment Update, December 2025 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan 29 08:30 AM Monthly Expenditures Update, December 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Feb 05 08:30 AM Monthly Trade Update, December 2025 Bureau of Economic Analysis
Feb 06 08:30 AM Monthly Employment Update, January 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Feb 06 10:00 AM Monthly Debt Update, January 2026 U.S. Treasury
Feb 11 08:30 AM Monthly Inflation Update, January 2026 Bureau of Labor Statistics
Feb 12 10:00 AM Monthly Fiscal Update, January 2026 U.S. Treasury


Notes


Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis; JEC Republicans calculations

“pp” = percentage points; “M/M” = month over month; “Y/Y” = year over year

Consistent with the Bureau of Economic Analysis, monthly figures are seasonally adjusted. Discrepancy in change figures is possible due to rounding.